WASHINGTON – Former President Donald Trump’s polling lead over President Biden is growing: A new poll finds the Republican leading by 4% nationally, boosted by a dramatic one-year swing in support among Blacks and Hispanics.
The latest Emerson College poll, released Wednesday, finds Trump leading 47% to 43%, while Biden’s lead among minority groups historically supportive of Democrats fell significantly in just one year.
The 81-year-old incumbent’s lead among Hispanic voters narrowed to 3%, down from 14% in an Emerson poll last November, a change of 11 percentage points.
Biden’s lead among African Americans was still substantial: 47%, but 15 percentage points less than this time last year.
Other recent national polls have found Biden falling badly among minority groups, including a New York Times poll of six swing states earlier this month that found the 77-year-old former president leading in five of them, boosted by the decline. of support for Biden among non-whites. 33% of exit polls in 2020.
Meanwhile, support for Trump among Black voters had grown 22% since 2020, according to the Times poll.
It is unclear what is behind the dramatic shift in support among minorities, although polls have consistently shown that economic concerns – including inflation and high interest rates – are the top issue for voters.
In 2020, Biden defeated Trump by 4.5% in the popular vote, although he won by much narrower margins in the swing states that ensured him victory in the Electoral College.
Former President Donald Trump’s poll lead over President Biden is growing.Getty Images
Trump won 8% support among Blacks and 38% among Hispanics in 2020, according to a Pew Research Center analysis of exit polls.
Black support for Trump remained relatively stable over the last two elections, but his Hispanic support grew about 12 points from 2016 to 2020.
In his first run for president, one of Trump’s main issues was the construction of a border wall between the United States and Mexico. In his reelection bid, the increase in Hispanic support was attributed in part to his tough approach toward leftist governments in Latin America.
The Emerson College poll is part of a series showing Trump with a lead over Biden despite facing four criminal trials starting next year related to his efforts to overturn his 2020 election loss, conceal 2016 hush payments and his alleged mishandling of classified national security matters. documents.
Biden’s lead among minority groups that have historically supported Democrats narrowed significantly in just one year.Getty Images
Trump leads Biden in 11 of 13 recent polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics, which puts Trump ahead of the president by an average difference of 47.2% to 44.9%.
The former president has tried to use his criminal accusations for his political benefit, arguing that he is being persecuted by partisan prosecutors. Black supporters protested outside his court appearance and told reporters that they, too, are familiar with a biased legal system.
Trump has also campaigned against the mass deportation of illegal immigrants, cracking down on violent crime and pivoting foreign policy to take a tougher approach toward China and negotiate an end to the war between Russia and Ukraine.
In the Emerson poll, Trump also narrowed Biden’s lead among women to 1 percentage point (down from seven last year) and among four-year college graduates. Biden has a 2% lead among that demographic, up from 18% last November.
At the same point four years ago, Biden had a 9.6% lead over Trump, while Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton led Trump by 4.4% in the RealClearPolitics average eight years ago.
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Source: vtt.edu.vn