The Republican Party’s leading presidential contenders are setting high expectations for next week’s Iowa caucuses, insisting they still have a chance against former President Donald Trump, who leads the field by more than 30 percentage points, according to poll averages. surveys.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis and former United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley are fighting to be Trump’s top alternative. DeSantis has promised that he is in the race to win, while Haley has been more ambiguous about her ultimate ambition.
Despite his low poll numbers, biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy has also maintained that he will do well in the Jan. 15 race, and spokeswoman Tricia McLaughlin promised The Post that the outside candidate will “shock the system.”
Polls conducted before the holidays averaged Trump receiving 51.3% support, followed by DeSantis at 18.6% and Haley at 16.1%.
Ramaswamy averaged just 5.9% support, followed by former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who still averaged 3.7% support despite abandoning Iowa for New Hampshire.
DeSantis’ bet
DeSantis, long considered Trump’s main rival, is the one who has bet the most on a good performance in the caucus.
It has invested most of its resources in Iowa, moving much of its staff to Des Moines, visiting all 99 counties in the state and investing in door-knocking and get-out-the-vote operations.
On New Year’s Eve, the 45-year-old governor announced the year 2024 by asking his supporters in West Des Moines to “work hard these next two weeks and win the Iowa caucuses.”
DeSantis is largely betting his candidacy on a strong showing in Iowa. AP
An unlikely victory would tarnish Trump’s aura of inevitability and could cause voters in New Hampshire and, especially, South Carolina to give DeSantis a second look in what his campaign said would be a “two-man” race. .
“We believe Iowans will reward our approach on the night of January 15,” a DeSantis representative told The Post in recent days.
On the other hand, a loss in Iowa coupled with a distant fourth and third place finish in New Hampshire and South Carolina, respectively, could mean the end of the Floridian’s once-promising campaign.
Trump’s explosive bet
Meanwhile, Trump plans to end the nomination race before most voters have a chance to weigh in.
The 77-year-old’s campaign is urging his representatives to convince new caucusgoers to participate in his “10 for Trump” program, hoping to increase the margin on January 15.
Trump hopes to end the competition in Iowa. AP
The former president has campaigned much less frequently in Iowa than his competitors, but he has drawn larger crowds and more enthusiasm. Trump has also continued to refuse to attend the debates, opting to participate in a Fox News town hall event on January 10 in Des Moines instead of the CNN debate between Haley and DeSantis across town.
“Right now, everyone in Iowa and New Hampshire is competing for second place. How well they do in those two states will be evident in the vote in South Carolina on February 24,” Republican strategist Dave Wilson told the Post.
Haley’s Rise
The former South Carolina governor has tried to downplay her position, but her supporters have made it clear they want her to win at least second place in Iowa.
A strong showing by Haley could prompt enough New Hampshire voters to side with her over Trump in the Granite State’s Jan. 23 primary, particularly after several recent polls show her within striking distance of the former president. over there.
In December, Haley said he just needed a “good performance” in the Hawkeye State, but did not elaborate.
The 51-year-old’s biggest supporter, New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu, made expectations clearer last week, saying she is in line for a “strong second-place finish” in Iowa and a victory in her home state.
Supporters are hoping for a strong showing in Iowa for Nikki Haley. REUTERS
Haley has had strong support from outside groups, and those supporters have poured into Iowa in recent months.
Americans for Prosperity Action, the Charles Koch-funded super PAC backing Haley, has assigned “thousands” of its surrogates to door-knocking and has promised “extensive mail, digital and television campaigns to complement on-the-ground efforts.” .
AFP Action spokesman Bill Riggs called the race a “marathon, not a sprint” and said their efforts could put Haley in “second or third place” and still prepare her well for New Hampshire, South Carolina and on Super Tuesday on March 5.
Haley’s team has been spending more than any other rival on advertising, according to AdImpact data.
SFA Fund Inc., the super PAC backing Haley, has spent $27 million in Iowa, the most of any endorsement organization. Her supporters have also shelled out the most total spending: $31 million, $300,000 more than pro-DeSantis spending.
The only thing that could work against Haley could be her own mouth, after she told New Hampshire voters last week that they “correct” the Iowa results.
“Telling that to New Hampshire voters while people in Iowa are still trying to make a decision is a real cut against Iowa caucusgoers,” Wilson argued. “This is the 2024 presidential race. Every word you say matters.”
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Source: vtt.edu.vn