With just over seven weeks until the Iowa caucuses, the Republican presidential field has narrowed considerably after former Vice President Mike Pence and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) suspended their campaigns.
As the field consolidates, some candidates will benefit more than others.
A recent analysis by RacetotheWH used an algorithm and second-choice polling data to project where voters may turn after their first choice drops out.
“[Nikki] Haley is the biggest beneficiary but [Ron] DeSantis is following pretty closely,” RacetotheWH founder Logan Phillips told The Post of the effect caused by Pence and DeSantis leaving the race.
Below is a look at where support for orphans could be headed based on data shared with The Post.
The 2024 Republican field appears to be shrinking faster than that of 2016. Getty Images Donald Trump is overwhelmingly ahead of his rivals in every poll. AP
donald trump
Former President Donald Trump is the undisputed favorite in the Republican race.
Because of that and the fact that many voters who back someone else appear to be looking for an alternative to the 77-year-old, Trump’s gains from the departures of Scott and Pence are projected to be less than those of some of his rivals.
Trump is averaging 47% in Iowa, 45.7% in New Hampshire, 49.3% in South Carolina and 59.4% nationally, according to polls aggregated by RealClearPolitics.
Trump is estimated to win 0.3 percentage points in Iowa, 0.1 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.4 percentage points nationally. In New Hampshire, Pence’s departure has no effect on the 45th president’s support, according to RacetotheWH.
From Scott, Trump will win 1.3 percentage points in Iowa, 0.3 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.5 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.2 percentage points nationally.
Trump’s biggest opportunity for a boost would come if DeSantis dropped out, with projected gains of 4.2 percentage points in Iowa, 2.8 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.8 percentage points in South Carolina and 5.2 percentage points in percentages at the national level.
Ron DeSantis maintains that Donald Trump will have electability problems in the general election. AFP via Getty Images
Ron De Santis
DeSantis is averaging 17.3% in Iowa, 7.7% in New Hampshire, 10.5% in South Carolina and 14% nationally, according to RCP.
According to Pence, DeSantis was projected to make 0.6 percentage points in Iowa, 0.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.4 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.7 percentage points nationally.
From Scott, the governor of the Sunshine State would get 1.3 percentage points in Iowa, 1.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.4 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.4 percentage points nationally.
If Haley dropped out, DeSantis could be expected to win 3.9 percentage points in Iowa, 2.7 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.7 percentage points in South Carolina and 1.5 percentage points nationally.
Nikki Haley has been competing against Ron DeSantis for second place. fake images
nikki haley
Haley is averaging 14.3% in Iowa, 18.7% in New Hampshire, 18.8% in South Carolina and 10.6% nationally, according to PCR aggregates.
Among Pence supporters, he was estimated to gain 1.2 percentage points in Iowa, 0.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.2 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.7 percentage points nationally.
Haley also appears to benefit the most from Scott’s departure, winning 2.6 percentage points in Iowa, 0.8 percentage points in New Hampshire, 3.2 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.5 percentage points at the state level. national.
If DeSantis suspended his campaign, Haley would be poised to win 6.2 percentage points in Iowa, 3.7 percentage points in New Hampshire, 4.5 percentage points in South Carolina and 2.5 percentage points nationally.
Vivek Ramaswamy voters are generally very favorable to Donald Trump.Getty Images
Vivek Ramaswamy
Biotech entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy averages 5% in Iowa, 7% in New Hampshire, 3% in South Carolina and 4.7% nationally, according to RCP.
According to Pence, Ramaswamy was projected to accrue just 0.1 percentage points of additional support in New Hampshire and 0.7 percentage points nationally, with no gain in Iowa. No projection was provided for South Carolina.
Scott’s youngest contender in the race was set to gain 1 percentage point in Iowa, 1 percentage point in New Hampshire, 0.5 percentage point in South Carolina and 0.3 percentage point nationally.
Trump stands to gain the most if Ramaswamy retires: The former president is projected to gain 1.9 percentage points in Iowa, 2.5 percentage points in New Hampshire, 1.5 percentage points in South Carolina and 1.4 percentage points in Nacional level.
Chris Christie has positioned himself as Trump’s attack dog in the 2024 fight. Getty Images
christian christian
The former New Jersey governor is averaging 4% in Iowa, 11.3% in New Hampshire (where he focused his campaign), 3% in South Carolina and 2.4% nationally.
From Pence, Christie would gain 0.8 percentage points in Iowa, 0.2 percentage points in New Hampshire and 0.5 percentage points nationally. No data was provided for South Carolina.
With Scott dropping out, Christie sees no gains in Iowa and gains of just 0.1 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.3 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.3 percentage points nationally.
If Christie dropped out, Haley would likely be the biggest benefactor, gaining 0.4 percentage points in Iowa, 4.2 percentage points in New Hampshire, 0.5 percentage points in South Carolina and 0.9 percentage points nationally.
Is Trump beatable?
Based on available polling data, even if Trump’s rivals dropped out and consolidated behind an alternative, that contender would face a steep climb to unseat the front-runner.
Phillips believes there is a possible, if unlikely, path for a candidate to achieve this.
“There is a group that is 100% Trump… There is a group, which is about 20% of the party, that is 100% non-Trump, at least for the primaries. And then the rest are people who are very open to Trump,” he said.
Other factors, such as Donald Trump’s momentum and criminal charges, could shake up the race. AP
“On paper, DeSantis is best positioned to do that,” Phillips added. “On paper, in direct polls, he is doing better than Haley, but you could also say that DeSantis has had his moment.”
Perhaps the best-case scenario for DeSantis or Haley would involve a three-way race with Trump and Ramaswamy, Phillips surmised.
“[If] Vivek gets enough to take away about 10% of support and perhaps keep Trump’s numbers below 50%, there is a scenario that he will deny him some delegates.
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Source: vtt.edu.vn