Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could receive up to 26% support from registered voters in six key battleground states, as voters bitter over an increasingly likely rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump, a new poll shows.
The New York Times/Siena College poll showed the 69-year-old political scion, environmental lawyer and vaccine advocate received 22% support in Wisconsin, 23% in Nevada and Pennsylvania, 24% support in Georgia and 26% in Arizona. and Michigan.
The poll also shows that Kennedy is more popular among young potential voters: 34% of respondents ages 18 to 29 and 31% of respondents ages 30 to 44 said they would support him in a three-way race. .
The son of the late New York attorney general and senator initially challenged Biden for the Democratic nomination, but opted to run as an independent last month.
If Kennedy makes it to the polls in any or all of the six states, the poll indicates that his presence is more likely to hurt Trump than Biden, but he would receive support from both candidates.
RFK Jr. is drawing a sizable chunk of support in key battleground states, according to reports. AP The poll shows that a candidacy by RFK Jr. would affect Trump the most, although the independent would divert support from both candidates.
In a hypothetical two-way race, 46% of Kennedy supporters in the six states said they would support or lean toward the 45th president.
Another 39% said they would vote for Biden or lean toward him.
The poll previously showed Trump leading Biden in five of six key states among registered voters, with only Wisconsin going for the Democrat, by a paltry two-point margin.
Donald Trump’s competitive advantage against Joe Biden in multiple battleground states diminished when RFK Jr. was added to the mix.Steven Hirsch
However, with Kennedy involved, the political landscape becomes much murkier.
Trump and Biden are tied in Arizona at 33% each, with the third-party candidate in the mix, and both men are tied in Pennsylvania at 35% each.
The former president’s lead over Biden in Georgia grows to seven percentage points (36% to 29%) when RFK Jr. is included, while the 77-year-old Republican’s lead shrinks to three points in Michigan (34% to 31% ) and seven points Nevada (38% to 31%).
RFK Jr. went on to file an independent presidential bid last month.REUTERS
Wisconsin is still going for Biden by two percentage points, but the vote share for each major party candidate drops by 10 percentage points, to 37% for Biden and 35% for Trump.
Kennedy’s competitive performance owes much to his disdain for the last two occupants of the White House.
The poll found that only 42% of registered voters had a favorable opinion of Trump, while 56% had an unfavorable opinion, but Biden’s distribution was even worse: 41% said they had a favorable opinion of the commander in boss and 57% said they had a favorable opinion of Trump. saying that they had an unfavorable opinion.
President Biden’s allies have been a little nervous about his anemic poll showing against GOP front-runner Donald Trump.AP
Voters also overwhelmingly said they trusted Trump more than Biden on the economy, despite the president’s efforts to promote his “Bidenomy” agenda.
The NYT/Siena College poll sent palpitations through the Democratic Party, with some luminaries publicly pleading with Biden to consider his position.
“The stakes of a miscalculation here are too dramatic to ignore,” said former Obama strategist David Axelrod. wrote in X. “Only @JoeBiden can make this decision. If he continues to run, he will be the Democratic Party’s nominee. What you need to decide is whether that is wise; Is it best for HIM or for the country?
Former White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain responded by attacking Axelrod for his past dismissiveness of Biden.
“The man who called Biden ‘Mr. Magoo’ in August 2019 is still at it,” Klain scolded Sunday.
Other analysts noted that polls show former President Barack Obama suffering a crisis at this point in his presidency before sailing to re-election victory over Republican Mitt Romney in 2012.
No independent presidential candidate has been as successful as Ross Perot in the more than 30 years since his campaign.Getty Images
No presidential contender outside the Democratic-Republican duopoly has won a state since George Wallace won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Mississippi for the American Independent Party in 1968.
In 1992, Reform Party candidate Ross Perot received a higher percentage of the vote than Wallace, but he did not win any electoral votes and finished second in both Maine and Utah.
In a three-way national showdown, Biden leads with 40% support, followed by Trump with 38.8% and Kennedy Jr. with 14.6%, according to the RealClearPolitics polling average.
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