WASHINGTON – If China decided to launch a possible World War III by invading Taiwan, it would face an uphill battle before even setting foot on the island about 100 miles off its southeastern coast, a U.S. Army general explained Tuesday.
Speaking before the House Armed Services Committee, Maj. Gen. Joseph McGee laid out the complicated factors deterring Beijing from taking such explosive action, which would draw the United States into military conflict.
“I think it is important to highlight [how] How difficult this invasion would be if the Chinese made the decision to take that course of action,” said McGee, who serves as deputy director of strategy, plans and policy for the Joint Chiefs of Staff.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made it his primary goal to ensure the “reunification” of China and Taiwan, which Beijing considers a breakaway province despite its long history of self-rule.
Taiwan, however, considers itself its own sovereign nation with a democratically elected government.
If Xi decides to take the island by force, the U.S. military would be obligated to defend Taipei under the Taiwan Relations Act, which committed the United States to defend the independently governed island should China try to upset the status quo.
Maj. Gen. Joseph McGee told the House Armed Services Committee that “there is absolutely nothing easy” about a potential Chinese invasion of Taiwan. AP Photo/Daniel Ceng, file
A long way to go
Although the United States has a multitude of diplomatic, economic and military deterrence efforts, it is not alone in preventing this terrifying possibility, McGee said. Apart from allies and partners, one of his best assistants is geography.
Despite its proximity to Taiwan, McGee said “there is absolutely nothing easy about a [Chinese] invasion of Taiwan”, since the distance between mainland China and the island is approximately four to five times greater than the distance that Allied troops had to travel during the Normandy landings in World War II.
“Obviously, we believe and hope that deterrence will continue to stop them, but if they were [to invade], they would have to cross the Taiwan Strait, which is between 90 and 120 miles,” he said. “For comparison, for the D-Day invasion. It was about 25 miles.
“So there is absolutely nothing easy about a PLA invasion of Taiwan,” he added.
To do so, China would first have to “concentrate tens of thousands, perhaps hundreds of thousands of troops” along its eastern border, McGee said. Intelligence officials would detect a troop movement of that size, alerting U.S. officials of an imminent invasion.
“That would be a clear sign that this is beginning,” he said.
The detection method was demonstrated last year, when US intelligence officials predicted Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, after President Vladimir Putin amassed more than 100,000 troops along the border between the two nations. in the months before the start of the war. begin.
Applied to Taiwan, that warning would cause the United States to begin taking countermeasures and preparing defense forces, the general said.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has made “reunification” with Taiwan a goal. GIANLUIGI GUERCIA/Pool via REUTERS/File Photo
Challenging maneuvers
Extending that distance would also require China to undertake difficult and highly organized maneuvers in the air and at sea, all exposing its troops to considerable vulnerabilities, according to the general.
“We think they would have to do a combined amphibious and airborne assault operation, which is an incredibly complicated joint operation to be able to do, especially when you’re talking about those distances,” McGee said.
With a US military informed and prepared to defend Taiwan, the already challenging plan to cross the controversial strait would be even more difficult to execute successfully.
“That would leave them in the middle of that gap [of] “90 to 100 miles, susceptible to all the fires we set on an invading force that was already telegraphing its intentions,” he said.
Even if China could overcome that challenge and reach Taiwan’s shores, the island’s dense population and rocky terrain would be hostile to an amphibious invasion to bring Chinese troops onto the ground, according to McGee.
“They would find an island that has very few beaches where boats can land, mountainous terrain and a population that we believe would be willing to fight,” he said. “They would be hitting cities like Taipei with around 7 million people, that’s twice the size of Los Angeles.”
Despite its relatively meager size of approximately 14,000 square miles, more than 23.5 million people live in Taiwan, making it one of the most densely populated nations in the world.
In addition to its natural defenses, McGee said the Taiwanese military is a capable force trained by American troops and supplied with American weapons.
“They would be attacking a country that has a credible and strong military force the size of Taiwan.”
A Taiwanese military soldier participating in a military drill in New Taipei City July 27, 2023.REUTERS/Ann Wang
Why defend Taiwan?
Still, the threat of invasion remains a key risk to U.S. national security, not only because of the nation’s defense commitment to the island but also because of the major economic threat that a Chinese-controlled Taiwan would pose.
“Military aggression throughout the [Taiwan] “The strait, whether in the form of an open invasion, a blockade or other means, would put human lives and global prosperity at risk unimaginable in this century,” Under Secretary of Defense for Indo-Pacific Security Ely Ratner told the committee. .
This is because it would jeopardize international access to key sea routes in the waters surrounding the island’s defenses, explained Deputy Undersecretary of State for Regional Security Mira Resnick.
A Taiwanese ship monitoring a Chinese aircraft carrier off the coast of the island on September 11, 2023.AP
“Geographically, Taiwan’s sea routes are the arteries of global trade and half of world trade passes through the Taiwan Strait each year,” he told the committee. “Any disruption would be acutely felt around the world, threatening more than 180,000 American jobs and crippling critical supply chains from Alabama to Washington and beyond.”
Additionally, Resnick said a conflict on the island would threaten Taiwan’s vital production of semiconductors, which are used for everything from cellphones to U.S. fighter jets and missile defenses.
“Economically, Taiwan’s cutting-edge semiconductors are the heart of the global economy and are used in everything from vehicles to iPhones, computers and pacemakers,” he said.
With those economic risks in place, the United States intends to stay across the Strait and remains committed to its “One China Policy,” which supports the current status quo and recognizes that China believes it owns Taiwan without taking sides in the long-running dispute. data, defense and State Department officials told the committee.
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Source: vtt.edu.vn