Democrat Tom Suozzi leads Republican Mazi Pilip by a narrow margin in a poll released Monday night, just hours before a special election to replace ousted Long Island congressman George Santos.
The new poll obtained exclusively by The Post showed Suozzi leading by just 1 percentage point with 46% support in the race for New York’s 3rd district, compared to Pilip’s 45% support.
Nine percent of respondents remain undecided in the close race.
The poll of 500 likely voters was conducted by polling firm JL Partners and has a margin of error of 4.4 percentage points, indicating a tie ahead of Tuesday’s election.
The firm asked voters who have already voted or are likely to vote in House District 3, which covers parts of Nassau County and northern Queens.
With undecided voters out of the mix, the race is evenly split between both candidates.
“This race is too close to call,” James Johnson, co-founder of JLP, told The Post. “It all depends on who turns out on election day.”
“If the Republicans can get their vote, then the race will be really competitive,” he added. “But the weather and the closeness of the race make it extremely unpredictable.”
More Democrats have voted early in the race than Republicans, possibly giving Suozzi an advantage ahead of Tuesday’s election. JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
The JL Partners survey also offers insight into why Suozzi, a representative of New York’s 3rd district from 2017 to 2023, has distanced himself from President Biden on the campaign trail.
The poll found Biden leading by just 1 point among Queens and Nassau County voters in a general election matchup against former President Donald Trump and third-party candidates.
Biden, 81, defeated Trump in the district by 10 points in 2020, and Suozzi beat Santos — during the disgraced former lawmaker’s first congressional run — by more than 12 points that year.
The poll measured support for Biden at 45%, compared to 44% for Trump.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. received 8% support and Green Party candidate Jill Stein had 3% of likely voters supporting her candidacy.
“One thing is clear: Compared to a decisive 10-point victory for Biden in 2020, NY-03 may now be the quintessential swing district,” Johnson said of the general election poll results.
Pilip is a mother of seven children and a former IDF paratrooper. Michael Nagel
A late winter storm forecast to dump up to eight inches of snow on the region on Tuesday could give Suozzi a boost at the polls, as thousands more Democrats than Republicans have turned out to vote early in the tight race.
In an interview with CNN that aired Monday, Suozzi argued that people in New York’s Third District are “fed up with the whole George Santos thing,” calling it “yesterday’s news,” while also comparing Pilip with the accused former congressman.
“It’s Santos 2.0,” Suozzi said of Pilip. “She doesn’t have specific positions on the issues. She will not meet with the public. She does not accept questions from the public. It’s the same thing,” the former Nassau County executive added.
Pilip, who was born in Ethiopia before moving to Israel, where he served as a paratrooper in the Israel Defense Forces, has focused his campaign on the migrant crisis, blaming Suozzi for failing to address border security during his term in the House of Representatives. . .
“The solution is that we have to come up with a plan [for] how we are going to bring people legally to this country: the way I came to this country, the way my husband came to this country,” Pilip told the outlet.
“My husband is a cardiologist. I built myself, you know, I’m running for Congress. “This is the country that can give you that opportunity, but you have to take the right path,” he added. “Right now, the way things are going, that’s not right.”
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Source: vtt.edu.vn