Former President Donald Trump would not only defeat President Biden if the 2024 election were held today, but he would also defeat four other Democrats who have been nominated to replace the 80-year-old incumbent on the ticket, according to a new poll.
The Fox News poll released Wednesday shows Trump, 77, leading Biden by 50% to 46% among registered voters.
The same poll found that Trump leads Vice President Kamala Harris by 50% to 45%, California Governor Gavin Newsom by 49% to 45%, and Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer by 48% to 46%. % and outgoing Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) 47% to 46% in hypothetical head-to-head matchups.
The Fox poll also shows Trump with a 49 percentage point lead in the national Republican primary, with 62% support compared to 13% for Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
Former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley is the only other Republican candidate to reach double digits (10%).
If DeSantis or Haley manage to overhaul Trump and win the Republican nomination, the poll shows they would also defeat Biden next year: DeSantis leads the Democrat 50% to 45% and Haley enjoys an 11 percentage point lead (52% to 41 ). %).
Former President Donald Trump leads the GOP presidential primary by 50 percentage points, according to a Fox News poll.REUTERS President Biden is behind each of the three leading Republican presidential contenders: Trump, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, and the former governor of South Carolina. Nikki Haley — with registered voters.AFP via Getty Images Nikki Haley is the only candidate to achieve a double-digit lead over President Biden in the 2024 general election.Getty Images
The poll also shows majority disapproval of Biden’s performance while in office among four key demographic groups: men (63%), voters under 45 (62%), Hispanics (60%), and college-educated voters (57 %). .
More than two-fifths of Black voters (41%) also disapprove of Biden’s performance, the highest percentage recorded by the Fox poll.
In a hypothetical matchup with Haley, the poll finds that the former ambassador to the United Nations would win 49% of women, 46% of voters under 35, 56% of voters over 65, 65 % of independents, % of white college graduates, and 51% of self-described moderates.
In particular, Biden and Haley poll evenly among suburban women (47%-47%), a key demographic that has backed Democrats in recent election cycles.
DeSantis, 45, beats the Democratic incumbent by 5 percentage points (50%-45%) in a head-to-head race, which is within the poll’s margin of error. AFP via Getty Images
Among self-described independents and white college graduates, Haley leads Biden by 43 percentage points and 9 percentage points, respectively. Trump maintains a 16-point lead over the president among independents, but is five behind him among white college graduates.
The 45th president has also made gains with other voter groups critical to Biden’s re-election effort since the October 2020 Fox poll. Compared to three years ago, Trump’s support among independents has increased by 21 percentage points , among blacks by 15 percentage points, Hispanics by 13 percentage points and eight percentage points among suburban voters.
Overall, 41% of registered voters approve of Biden’s job performance and 59% disapprove, while Trump has a 44% favorable rating and a 56% unfavorable rating.
The president shows high disapproval numbers among men (63%), voters under 45 (62%), Hispanics (60%), voters with a college degree (57%) and black voters (41%).REUTERS
Harris, 59, posted her worst approval numbers yet in the Fox poll, with 38% approving of her job performance and 59% disapproving.
“None of our previous data has shown an electability advantage, on either side,” said Republican Daron Shaw, who conducted the Fox News poll with Democrat Chris Anderson.
“But in this poll, right now, Haley can argue that she is in the best position to take back the White House.”
“[I]In this poll, right now, Haley can argue that she is best positioned to take back the White House,” said Republican Daron Shaw, who helped conduct the Fox News poll.REUTERS
Biden remains far ahead in the Democratic primary, with the support of 72% of his party’s voters, compared to 13% backing spiritual guru Marianne Williamson and 3% backing Rep. Dean Phillips (D- Minnesota).
In a hypothetical five-way matchup involving independent candidates Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Cornel West, as well as Green Party candidate Jill Stein, Trump leads Biden by 41% to 35%, with Kennedy receiving 15% and West and Stein with 3%. each.
“While it’s understandable that most people have focused on how third-party options affect major party candidates, the level of support itself is notable,” Shaw said.
“More than one in five voters are going rogue today, more than Ross Perot in 1992, John Anderson in 1980 or George Wallace in 1968. It’s a clear indictment of leading Republican and Democratic candidates.”
The Fox News poll was conducted Nov. 10-13 with Beacon Research, a Democratic pollster, and Shaw & Company Research, a Republican pollster. It surveyed 1,001 registered voters nationwide through live interviews and calls to landlines and cellphones.
The poll’s margin of error was plus or minus three percentage points for all registered voters; plus or minus 4.5 percentage points for Republican primary voters; and plus or minus five percentage points for Democratic primary voters.
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Source: vtt.edu.vn