Former President Donald Trump gained his biggest lead yet against President Biden on Sunday in a new NBC poll, as voters gave the incumbent poor marks across the board.
Trump, 77, gained a 47% to 42% lead over Biden, 81, among registered voters, up from his 46% to 44% lead recorded in a November poll. half.
“This is the biggest lead NBC has ever had in 16 polls in favor of Donald Trump over Joe Biden,” NBC political correspondent Steve Kornacki said Sunday on “Meet the Press.”
NBC has conducted polls on Trump vs. Biden for about five years. Historically, Biden has had an advantage over his predecessor, but that began to change last year.
Last July, Biden was touting a 49% to 45% lead over Trump, but by September they were dead even at 46%. Then, in November, Trump stepped forward.
The latest poll sampled 1,000 registered voters with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points and was conducted Jan. 26-30.
When third-party candidates were added to the mix, Trump’s lead expanded to six points, leading Biden by 41% to 35%, with a Libertarian candidate getting 5%, the Green Party getting 5%, and Without Labels achieving 4%.
Donald Trump achieved victory in the Republican races in Iowa and New Hampshire. AP
The poll did not test environmental lawyer Robert F. Kennedy Jr. or independent presidential candidate Cornel West.
Former US ambassador to the UN and South Carolina governor Nikki Haley led Biden 45% to 36% in the poll.
Biden’s campaign declined to comment on the survey. However, Matt Barreto, a former pollster for the Biden 2020 campaign, pointed out to The Post some concerns with their sampling.
“He overrepresents white and conservative voters and underrepresents Democrats and Latinos. “It is critical to point out a survey’s shortcomings, as much as its findings, before experts jump to conclusions about the state of the race, especially when it appears as an outlier when placed in the context of other surveys,” he said.
“We know that 2024 will be very close and we also know that pre-election polls will be all over the place.”
On the other hand, a subsample of Republican voters surveyed favored Trump over Haley by 79% to 19% in the GOP primary, where Trump is the heavy favorite.
Joe Biden’s approval rating is below voters’ level. AP
The NBC poll also showed some warning signs for Biden ahead of his potential Nov. 5 rematch against Trump.
Biden’s job approval rating plummeted to 37%, and 60% disapprove of his performance in office. This is the lowest rating NBC has recorded since former President George W. Bush.
Compared to Trump in the poll, Biden earned 41% support from Latino voters, up from 42% for his predecessor. Among younger voters ages 18 to 34, Biden leads Trump by 38% to 26%.
Despite low unemployment and cooling inflation under Biden, 55% of voters said they trust Trump more with the economy than Biden (33%).
Most polls show a close matchup between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, often within the margin of error. AP
By a 21-point margin, respondents said they trust Trump more than Biden when it comes to having the “physical and mental health necessary to be president.”
Still, on some issues, Biden gained an advantage over Trump, including confidence among voters in protecting democracy by 43% to 41% and on abortion by a 12-point margin.
Biden’s campaign has repeatedly brushed aside dismal polls and pointed to Democrats’ outperforming polls and expectations in the 2022 midterms, as well as their victories in a series of elections outside of 2023.
“We cannot lose this campaign for the good of the country. It’s not about me. It goes far beyond me. It’s about the country. I think everyone knows that,” Biden proclaimed after his landslide victory in the South Dakota primary.
President Biden easily defeated his Democratic rivals in the South Carolina primary. REUTERS
The president and his allies have cast the 2024 general election as a battle to preserve American democracy.
NBC’s findings echo myriad other polls that find Trump ahead of Biden, although most polls place the two largely within the margin of error.
Trump has a 46.7% to 44.6% lead over Biden in the most recent set of polls from RealClearPolitics.
The 45th president is also generally ahead of Biden in most PCR aggregates for battleground states, which will ultimately determine the outcome of the election.
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Source: vtt.edu.vn