Sen. Mitt Romney’s (R-Utah) announcement this week that he will not seek re-election won’t change the 2024 Senate math for Republicans, who are as optimistic as ever about a red race.
In contrast to its loss in the 2022 midterm elections, the Republican Party insists that 2024 will be a better year.
In November, the Republican Party lost one seat in Pennsylvania and failed to gain any new seats, leaving it two votes short of a majority.
Party leaders say the 2024 map, when 33 seats are up for grabs, offers exceptionally optimistic prospects.
“We are excited to compete on favorable terrain this cycle. He [National Republican Senatorial Committee] “He’s going to recruit top-notch candidates, develop a winning message and raise the resources we need to make sure we get a Republican majority in 2024,” Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) told The Post.
Daines, the new NRSC chair, and his colleagues point out that three ruby red states in the 2024 cycle, West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, are currently represented by Democrats.
They also insist they are competitive in at least three states that Biden narrowly won.
Montana Republican Sen. Steve Daines, new NRSC chair, says the party is “excited to compete on favorable ground” in 2024. AP
Veteran Democratic political consultant James Carville said his party needed to focus on the quality of candidates in 2024.
“People need to wake up. It’s going to be a very discouraging Senate map for Democrats. No one can argue with that,” he said. “It’s a bad year.”
Democrats and independents aligned with them will defend 22 seats in total, while Republicans will defend only 11.
The Republican Party will play defense in strongholds like Utah, Nebraska and Mississippi.
Here’s how the battlefields are shaping up:
Mountain
Daines’ home state is one of his top targets.
His Big Sky Country colleague, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, has already beaten the odds in the state, but things have gotten redder over the years.
Democratic US Senator Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada.AP
Montana went for Trump by 16 points in the 2020 election.
The governor and both members of Congress are now Republicans.
In two of Tester’s last three victories, he received no more than 50% of the vote.
In February, Tester said he would seek another term and in December he told MSNBC that he “feels good about his chances.”
Republican majors believe they have a winning candidate in former Navy SEAL Tim Sheehy, but he may still face a primary from Montana Republican Rep. Matt Rosendale.
West Virginia
The heart of coal country today is more hostile to Democrats than anywhere else.
Trump won the state in 2020 by 39 points, his largest margin of victory.
And yet Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, a former “hotheaded cyclops” of the Ku Klux Klan who became a liberal icon, represented West Virginia for more than 50 years until his death in 2010.
Sen. Joe Manchin, a popular former governor, has kept the seat in Democratic hands.
Democratic Senator Robert Byrd represented West Virginia for more than 50 years until his death in 2010. AP
Republicans have repeatedly squandered opportunities to unseat him.
Manchin, who has not confirmed that he will run again, has survived in part thanks to his willingness to take on liberals, including socialists like Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Manchin has said he would make a final decision in December.
“Defeating Joe Manchin is our top priority, and we are fully capable and ready to send him into permanent political retirement,” said Tony M. Hodge, co-chairman of the state Republican Party.
Republican US Senator JD Vance won the 2022 midterm elections in Ohio.AP
Republicans have spent months courting the state’s wealthy and popular Republican governor, Jim Justice, who entered the race in April.
Polls indicate that he is the only one who could beat Manchin.
West Virginia Congressman Alex Mooney is also running for the seat.
Ohio
Ohio, once a swing state, has trended sharply to the right, supporting Trump in 2020 by an 8-point margin.
While Republicans fared poorly in the 2022 midterm elections, they captured the Buckeye State’s other Senate seat, won by author and venture capitalist JD Vance.
Incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown easily dispatched his Republican rivals in 2006, 2012 and 2018, but Republicans hope his time is finally up.
U.S. Senator JD Vance in the Ohio Valley at a gathering at Leonardo’s Coffeehouse on North 4th Street.
“Sherrod Brown is vulnerable. He represents an Ohio that no longer exists. He ran as a left-wing, social centrist, very Midwestern prosecutor, but he no longer lives up to those standards and that Democratic Party no longer exists,” said Ryan Girdusky, a Republican political strategist who helped elect Vance. .
Matt Dolan, a popular Republican state senator, has entered the race and the National Republican Senatorial Committee is running television ads.
Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose is also seeking the nomination.
A third candidate. Bernie Moreno recently made headlines after raising the idea of reparations to white people.
Wisconsin
Wisconsin has become a national swing state.
After narrowly backing former President Trump in the 2016 election, the state went for Biden in 2020 by just 20,000 votes.
Wisconsin Republican Sen. Ron Johnson managed to keep his seat while being considered the party’s most vulnerable incumbent in the 2022 midterms. Sipa USA via AP
Democratic Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin spoke to the media about Donald Trump’s first 100 days in office.AP
In 2022, Wisconsin Republican Senator Ron Johnson managed to retain his seat, but was widely considered the party’s most vulnerable incumbent in the midterm elections.
Sen. Tammy Baldwin, a longtime Democratic incumbent, is seeking re-election in 2024.
Trempealeau County Board Supervisor Stacey Klein is the most prominent Republican to emerge so far to challenge Baldwin.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee is looking to recruit Eric Hobde or Scott Mayer, both successful businessmen.
Better-known candidates like Rep. Mike Gallagher, a popular Republican congressman from Green Bay, have publicly withdrawn.
“People like Tammy Baldwin,” said a senior Democratic member of the Senate, who warned against GOP overconfidence. “She works on local issues, something Republicans never knew how to do. They only speak at the national level. She travels around the state and has a very strong regional staff, from rural to more urban areas, and she knows how to speak in each region.”
Arizona
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema raised eyebrows when she left the Democrats in December to formally become an independent.
U.S. Senator Kyrsten Sinema recently switched from the Democratic Party to an Independent designation.AP
Sinema’s maverick voting record has long irked party activists who were eager to launch a primary against her.
Democratic Rep. Rubén Gallego challenges her, telling Politico that he “has already spoken to many national Democratic donors.”
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Corbin Trent, a progressive political operative and former AOC communications director, said a Republican in 2024 “is not off the table. He would give them a 60-40 tilt if you have Sinema and a Democrat running against a Republican.”
Biden won Arizona in 2020 by 10,000 votes.
For now, however, polls show Gallego defeated both Sinema and a potential Republican challenger.
Michigan
Michigan generally leans Democratic, but Republicans have been encouraged by the state’s popular Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow’s decision not to seek re-election.
Michigan swung for Trump in 2016, playing a key role in his arrival at the White House, but returned to support Biden in 2020.
Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Flint), a popular moderate, announced she would seek to replace Stabenow.
Pamela Pugh, president of the Michigan State Board of Education, is also seeking the nomination.
Democratic Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan will not seek re-election.AP
“The Good Doctor” actor Hill Harper is also running.
On the Republican side, former Rep. Mike Rogers is running, as is Nikki Snyder, a member of the Michigan State Board of Education.
“If Republicans spend and put forward a smart candidate, we’ll have this as a potential comeback,” said Garrett Ventry, a Republican consultant. “Democrats will also have to play defense in deep red states.”
Rep. John James, former Congressman Fred Upton and 2022 Republican gubernatorial candidate Tudor Dixon have also been nominated.
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