The 2024 presidential election will be unlike any other, political strategists and pollsters say.
Donald Trump’s impeachments and ballot access, President Biden’s age and absence in New Hampshire, the economy, third-party candidates and dissatisfaction with both parties could lead to “unexpected” results in November.
“Expect the unexpected. Consider all the old rules and stories and throw them out the window,” Democratic pollster John Zogby told the Post.
The 2024 primary season will officially begin on Jan. 15 with the Iowa GOP caucuses. Trump appears to have a huge lead over his competition in the Hawkeye State and nationally, according to polls, and he’s also leading Biden in key swing states by a significant margin.
But Trump’s lead could change depending on how well he does in the early states and whether any other candidates manage to close in on the former president, according to strategists and pollsters.
“Trump is doing well because he’s not in charge right now and, by any measure, Americans are just dissatisfied, fed up and grumpy,” Zogby said, noting that consumer confidence is rising but not yet has translated into a “period of good health. feelings” under Biden.
Donald Trump speaks to guests at a campaign event on December 19, 2023 in Waterloo, Iowa. Getty Images
Former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley is closest to Trump in the polls, with a single-digit margin in New Hampshire. But the blowback she received after failing to mention slavery as the cause of the Civil War could show how volatile the race is.
“We’ll see if this is a blip … or if it will be a campaign-defining moment,” Henry Olsen, a veteran political analyst and senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center, told The Post.
The CNN debate between Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley, five days before the Iowa election, could also “go a long way toward determining” who the nation’s early voters lean toward, he added.
Democratic strategist Brad Bannon predicted that Haley still “has a chance to defeat Trump.”
“It would be harder for the president to beat Haley than it would be to beat Trump,” he added.
Nikki Haley addresses the crowd during a campaign stop at the Nevada Fairgrounds Community Building on December 18, 2023 in Nevada, Iowa Getty Images
In the general election, polls show that between 20% and 25% of voters say they would not want to vote for Biden or Trump, and those voters “will be the ones who decide the election,” Olsen said.
Dissatisfaction with both parties could also lead a significant proportion of voters to favor third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Cornel West and Jill Stein.
Kennedy, in particular, has garnered up to 26% support and has attracted the attention of both Republicans and Democrats.
The schedule of Trump’s court cases and whether he will be removed from more state ballots could also affect his ability to beat Biden.
“What happens if Trump gets a mistrial?” Olsen said. “What if that happens first?”
Joe Biden speaks to the press before boarding Marine One on the South Lawn of the White House on December 23, 2023. Getty Images
Both Trump and Biden, who are 77 and 81 years old respectively, have to deal with potential health problems. Polls show voters are more concerned about Biden’s health than the former president’s, but either could be open to potential health problems, Olsen said.
“You never know what’s under the body of a 77-year-old man or an 81-year-old man.”
Biden, who is likely to become the Democratic nominee, may also not be a candidate due to his competence.
First he has to deal with New Hampshire, where a dispute between the DNC and the state over the primary schedule led to him not being on the ballot.
Democratic challenger Rep. Dean Phillips (D-MN) is campaigning hard in the nation’s first primary state in an attempt to gain ground on the incumbent, but a write-in campaign is underway to save Biden of shame in January. 23.
“There is a chance that an unknown like Dean Phillips could embarrass Joe Biden, the same way Eugene McCarthy embarrassed LBJ in 1968,” Zogby said. (Lyndon B. Johnson, who was the incumbent at the time, did not register for the New Hampshire ballot)
Olsen stressed that for Biden it will be about the margin of victory.
“How many people will simply vote for Dean Phillips or Marianne Williamson to cast a protest vote? “Biden is not going to lose the primary… but what happens if Biden only gets 60% in the Michigan primary?”
The economy will be a huge factor in whether Biden is re-elected, Bannon told The Post.
“Economists talk about the possibility of a soft landing for the economy. “If the soft landing happens, I think it will be a big boost for Biden’s election campaign.”
Categories: Trending
Source: vtt.edu.vn